Following the (New) Money

Here’s a pop quiz for you:

By current trends in 2014 online advertising spend will exceed spend on which of the following media:

A Outdoor
B Magazines
C Radio
D Cinema

If your guess was “all of the above” you are correct. According to data from Zenith Optimedia in just over a year online ad spend will eclipse all other categories except for TV whose market share continues at a solid 40% albeit with that 40% spread over many more points of exposure. That’s amazing growth by any analysis. When we look at the online category we’d expect to see the lion’s share of the money going to search and thus by adoption by Google. Whilst the category is projected to grow significantly the relative share which search is projected to garner drops from over 60% today to just over 55% in 2014. That’s not a huge drop but any kind of drop in any search metric is worthy of note. I happen to think there’s an even larger upside in the non search bucket. As re-marketing grows in popularity so more and more display inventory becomes more valuable. The largest single player in the display world is Facebook with about 50% of all display inventory. Part of the dramatic decline they have endured has come from their inability to deliver value through targeted display.

AdWeek is happening this week in New York. I wonder how large a convention center we would need to get everyone who works in magazines, radio, outdoor and cinema advertising. I’m guessing it would have to be a pretty large venue. In contrast the online industry get together I attend tend to be only a few thousand big at the very largest. Google employs about 35,000 folks add in the rest of the industry it might just scrape 50,000 employees industry wide, that’s an amazing concentration of power….and quite  new one. If this much power changed hands this quickly in political terms we’d call it a revolution…or maybe a Coup d’état.

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